Juan Ignacio Jacoubian

I build a dynamic quantitative spatial trade model with firm and worker heterogeneity, mobility frictions, and short-run unemployment to quantify the regional and distributional effects of the China Shock across U.S. states. The baseline model implies an average welfare gain (0.1%) but substantial heterogeneity across skill groups. Average welfare gains are 0.01% for unskilled workers—who lose in 17 of 50 states—versus 0.31% for skilled workers, who lose in only 7 states. The model predicts an average increase of 0.78% in the skill premium, with more exposed states experiencing larger increases. Finally, I find long-run gains in every state for both types of workers.

The March 2023 banking turmoil has intensified discussions whether social media and the digitalisation of finance have become significant factors in driving severe deposit outflows. We introduce the concept of deposits-at-risk and utilize quantile regressions for disentangling determinants of stressed outflows at the lowest tail of the distribution. For a sample of large banks directly supervised by the ECB, our findings indicate that an increased use of online banking services leads to a small amplification of extreme deposit outflows, but this effect is not further exacerbated by the availability of a mobile banking app. Online banking use and availability of a mobile app do not have a causal effect on deposit volatility in normal times. Finally, social media are impactful only in idiosyncratic cases.

I develop a static model to study the macroeconomic effect of multinational production (MP) and trade in the context of technology diffusion among the best firms in the sector and simultaneous firm-to-firm technology transfers between sectors. I show the importance of separately calibrating aggregate spillovers and firm-to-firm technology transfers in the buyer-supplier linkages. I focus my analysis on non-tradable suppliers, and show how different levels of technology transfer affect the gains from openness.